NewZinoo: Wolf Street latest news

eco - Wolf Street - 12 hours ago

Repo Market Liquidity Pressures Made Worse by Government Shutdown, but the Fed’s SRF Did its Job and Went Back to Sleep

After the debt ceiling, the shutdown: government checking account (TGA) sucks up $700 billion in four months.

eco - Wolf Street - 1 day ago

US Government’s Net Cash from Tariffs Jumps to Record $32 Billion in October

The Supreme Court could strike down a portion of the tariffs, but the Administration sees similar tariffs under different Acts. "You should assume they're here to stay": Bessent.

eco - Wolf Street - 1 day ago

Who Takes the Losses on Office CRE? Here’s an Example: the Bankruptcy of Office Properties Income Trust

Shareholders got wiped out, noteholders take losses and get the company, banks appear to be largely unscathed.

eco - Wolf Street - 3 days ago

Dear Readers, Please Donate to WOLF STREET: Fall 2025 Reminder

Your generous support allows WOLF STREET to remain free and open to all, not hidden behind a paywall.

eco - Wolf Street - 3 days ago

Office CMBS Delinquency Rate Hits Record 11.8%, Much Worse than Financial Crisis. Multifamily Delinquencies Soar to 7.1%

Commercial real estate (CRE) loans on office and multifamily properties got further bludgeoned in October.

eco - Wolf Street - 3 days ago

What Does the “Federal Funds Rate,” which the Fed Targets, still Measure? Not Much, Mostly a Bizarre Arbitrage Trade

“The FOMC should modernize the target rate”: Dallas Fed president Lorie Logan.

eco - Wolf Street - 4 days ago

Banks Borrow Record $50 Billion at Fed’s New SRF amid Hot Repo Rates, ON RRPs Spike to $52 Billion in Opposite Direction

Month-End Liquidity-Palooza: Banks finally used the new and improved SRF the way the Fed has been exhorting them to use it to keep a lid on repo rates.

eco - Wolf Street - 5 days ago

Fed Balance Sheet QT: Reserve Balances and ON RRPs -$109 Billion in October, -$3.0 Trillion from Peak. What’s Next, According to Powell

Reserves will shrink further when the balance sheet stays flat after QT ends.

eco - Wolf Street - 5 days ago

The US Dollar Gets More Fuel from Powell’s Doubts about December Rate Cut

But the much-hyped USD “debasement trade” already died weeks ago. The correct debasement trade has been the yen.

eco - Wolf Street - 6 days ago

Fed Cuts by 25 Basis Points with 2 Dissents in Opposite Directions, QT to End, but MBS to Continue Rolling Off to Be Replaced by T-bills

Flying blind and despite rising inflation.

eco - Wolf Street - 6 days ago

Home Sales Have Not Improved at All Despite the Lowest Mortgage Rates in a Year

Pending home sales and applications for mortgages to purchase a home are near historic lows, and lower mortgage rates have not stimulated demand.

eco - Wolf Street - 7 days ago

Even as Revenues Grow, Amazon to Lay off 14,000. Why? AI and Corporate Efficiency. Walmart and Others Toot Similar Horn

Revenue growth without employment growth. But Amazon spent $78 billion on capex in 2024 and more in 2025. So companies that get this cash hire more people than Amazon sheds?

eco - Wolf Street - 9 days ago

The Cities Where Condo Prices Are Now Below their Housing Bubble Peaks 20 Years Ago

Boom-Bust, Boom-Bust?

eco - Wolf Street - 11 days ago

Food Inflation: The Price Spikes of Beef, Coffee, Eggs, and Dairy

CPI for food at home has surged by 30% since January 2020. Food prices are nothing to be trifled with.

eco - Wolf Street - 11 days ago

Massive Outlier in Owner’s Equivalent of Rent Pushed Down CPI, Core CPI, Core Services CPI: Something Went Awry at the BLS

OER weighs 26% of CPI, 33% of core CPI, 44% of core services CPI. It moves the needle. CPI inflation would have been a lot hotter without this outlier.

eco - Wolf Street - 12 days ago

Oh Elon, Californians Already Forgot? EV Sales, even Teslas, Spike in Q3 before End of Federal EV Incentives. ICE Vehicle Sales Plunge

Tesla Model Y by far #1 bestseller in California. Cybertruck failed, Model S and X fell off list. Non-Tesla EVs soar to record.

eco - Wolf Street - 12 days ago

Sales of Existing Single-Family Homes Rise but still 23% below 2019, Supply at 2016 Levels. Condo Sales Near Low in the Data, Supply at Housing Bust Levels, Prices Down YoY

September marks third year in a row of sales wobbling along crushed levels.

eco - Wolf Street - 13 days ago

US Treasury Debt Hits $38 Trillion after Spiking by $1 Trillion in 2.5 Months and by $1.8 Trillion since the Debt Ceiling

But debt and interest expense don’t exist in a vacuum.

eco - Wolf Street - 13 days ago

Falling Mortgage Rates further Reduce Demand in the Housing Market (Not so Paradoxically)

Waiting for even lower mortgage rates comes on top of all the big issues that crush demand in the housing market.

eco - Wolf Street - 14 days ago

The 23 Bigger Cities where Condo Prices Dropped by 12% to 28% through September

The Condo Bust is spreading, after the most extraordinary Condo Bubble maybe ever.

eco - Wolf Street - 15 days ago

Repo Market Brushfires Doused by Banks’ Use of the Fed’s Standing Repo Facility (SRF)

The new and improved SRF begins to serve its purpose of allowing the Fed to push QT as far as possible without blowing anything up, unlike last time.

eco - Wolf Street - 16 days ago

The 15 Bigger Cities with the Biggest Price Declines of Single-Family Homes (-10% to -24%) through September

Oakland, Austin, Cape Coral, New Orleans, San Francisco, Birmingham, Fort Myers, Washington DC, Sarasota, Denver, Hayward, Portland, Phoenix, Naples, St. Petersburg.

eco - Wolf Street - 18 days ago

AI-Powered Tricolor and its Mushroom Cloud of Fraud Allegations Are a Sign Greedy Lenders Closed their Eyes for Years, Not a Sign Consumers Are “Cracking” or Whatever

American consumers are doing OK on their auto loans.

eco - Wolf Street - 19 days ago

The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America: Price Drops and Gains in 33 Large Expensive Metros in September 2025

Prices fell YoY in 22: Tampa, Austin, Miami, San Diego, Los Angeles, San Jose, San Francisco, Dallas, San Antonio, Houston, Phoenix, Orlando, Atlanta, Denver, Raleigh, Seattle… Rose in Chicago, Boston, New York, Philadelphia…

eco - Wolf Street - 20 days ago

Stock Market Leverage Blows Out

Everyone is talking about the AI bubble – proclaiming it or denying it – but this is what it looks like from the leverage point of view.

eco - Wolf Street - 20 days ago

Home Buyers’ Strike Drags on Relentlessly, Despite Lower Mortgage Rates

So mortgage rates are not the problem; those exploded prices are.

eco - Wolf Street - 21 days ago

Powell on the End of QT (“We’re Not so Far Away but There’s a Ways to Go”), Shifting Assets to T-Bills, and Selling MBS

Bonus: His doomsday scenario if Congress forces the Fed to stop paying interest to banks on their reserve balances.

eco - Wolf Street - 22 days ago

The Huge US Bond Market and the US Dollar Blow Off the “Debasement Trade”

The bond market has taken the opposite bet, and the dollar has strengthened.

eco - Wolf Street - 24 days ago

10-Year Treasury Yield Drops to One-Month Low on Trump’s China Threat, Bond Market Sees One Rate Cut this Year, Deficit-Funding Shifts to T-Bills

Despite the big drop on Friday, the 10-year Treasury yield is higher than shortly before the September rate cut.

eco - Wolf Street - 25 days ago

Is it Really Different this Time?

AI is huge. But so is the mania of hype, hocus-pocus deals, and piles of real money fortified by leverage that caused stock prices to explode.

eco - Wolf Street - 26 days ago

Amazing How the Money-Printing World Has Reversed

Balance Sheet as % of GDP: Fed, ECB, BOJ, BOE, and Central Banks of Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and Sweden

eco - Wolf Street - 27 days ago

ECB’s QT Has Knocked €3.28 trillion off its Balance Sheet (far More than the Fed’s QT) and Accelerated QT Further this Year

Gold mark-to-market quarterly adjustment: +€158 billion for Q3 on gold's price spike, largest ever write-up.

eco - Wolf Street - 27 days ago

Spike in Refis, Triggered by Small Dip in Mortgage Rates, Fizzled. Demand for Mortgages to Purchase Homes Still in Deepfreeze

Mortgage rates are higher than before the rate cuts started over a year ago.

eco - Wolf Street - 28 days ago

Bank of Japan Balance Sheet QT Accelerates: -$148 Billion in Q3, -$407 Billion fr. Peak. Will Sell ETFs, REITs. Sold all Bank Stocks

Its holdings of commercial paper and corporate bonds are nearly gone. The BOJ is cleaning up its balance sheet.

eco - Wolf Street - 29 days ago

Home Prices in the Largest Countries of Europe Range from Splendid Housing Bubbles to a Market that Dropped back to 2010

Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Netherlands, Poland, Belgium, Sweden, Ireland, Austria, Norway, Denmark, Romania, Czech Republic, Finland, Portugal.

eco - Wolf Street - 31 days ago

After the debt ceiling, the shutdown: government checking account (TGA) sucks up $700 billion in four months.

The Supreme Court could strike down a portion of the tariffs, but the Administration sees similar tariffs under different Acts. "You should assume they're here to stay": Bessent.

Shareholders got wiped out, noteholders take losses and get the company, banks appear to be largely unscathed.

Your generous support allows WOLF STREET to remain free and open to all, not hidden behind a paywall.

Commercial real estate (CRE) loans on office and multifamily properties got further bludgeoned in October.

“The FOMC should modernize the target rate”: Dallas Fed president Lorie Logan.

Month-End Liquidity-Palooza: Banks finally used the new and improved SRF the way the Fed has been exhorting them to use it to keep a lid on repo rates.

Reserves will shrink further when the balance sheet stays flat after QT ends.

But the much-hyped USD “debasement trade” already died weeks ago. The correct debasement trade has been the yen.

Flying blind and despite rising inflation.

Pending home sales and applications for mortgages to purchase a home are near historic lows, and lower mortgage rates have not stimulated demand.

Revenue growth without employment growth. But Amazon spent $78 billion on capex in 2024 and more in 2025. So companies that get this cash hire more people than Amazon sheds?

Boom-Bust, Boom-Bust?

CPI for food at home has surged by 30% since January 2020. Food prices are nothing to be trifled with.

OER weighs 26% of CPI, 33% of core CPI, 44% of core services CPI. It moves the needle. CPI inflation would have been a lot hotter without this outlier.

Tesla Model Y by far #1 bestseller in California. Cybertruck failed, Model S and X fell off list. Non-Tesla EVs soar to record.

September marks third year in a row of sales wobbling along crushed levels.

But debt and interest expense don’t exist in a vacuum.

Waiting for even lower mortgage rates comes on top of all the big issues that crush demand in the housing market.

The Condo Bust is spreading, after the most extraordinary Condo Bubble maybe ever.

The new and improved SRF begins to serve its purpose of allowing the Fed to push QT as far as possible without blowing anything up, unlike last time.

Oakland, Austin, Cape Coral, New Orleans, San Francisco, Birmingham, Fort Myers, Washington DC, Sarasota, Denver, Hayward, Portland, Phoenix, Naples, St. Petersburg.

American consumers are doing OK on their auto loans.

Prices fell YoY in 22: Tampa, Austin, Miami, San Diego, Los Angeles, San Jose, San Francisco, Dallas, San Antonio, Houston, Phoenix, Orlando, Atlanta, Denver, Raleigh, Seattle… Rose in Chicago, Boston, New York, Philadelphia…

Everyone is talking about the AI bubble – proclaiming it or denying it – but this is what it looks like from the leverage point of view.

So mortgage rates are not the problem; those exploded prices are.

Bonus: His doomsday scenario if Congress forces the Fed to stop paying interest to banks on their reserve balances.

The bond market has taken the opposite bet, and the dollar has strengthened.

Despite the big drop on Friday, the 10-year Treasury yield is higher than shortly before the September rate cut.

AI is huge. But so is the mania of hype, hocus-pocus deals, and piles of real money fortified by leverage that caused stock prices to explode.

Balance Sheet as % of GDP: Fed, ECB, BOJ, BOE, and Central Banks of Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and Sweden

Gold mark-to-market quarterly adjustment: +€158 billion for Q3 on gold's price spike, largest ever write-up.

Mortgage rates are higher than before the rate cuts started over a year ago.

Its holdings of commercial paper and corporate bonds are nearly gone. The BOJ is cleaning up its balance sheet.

Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Netherlands, Poland, Belgium, Sweden, Ireland, Austria, Norway, Denmark, Romania, Czech Republic, Finland, Portugal.

Bringing federal job losses to over 200,000 since January. Excluding federal and state, nonfarm payrolls haven’t been all that bad.