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eco - Wolf Street - 3 hours ago

Hiring in the Private Sector Surges, Despite All Moaning and Groaning about the Economy or Whatever

Layoffs and discharges as share of payrolls remain historically low: But the immense pandemic-era churn in the labor market has slowed.

eco - Wolf Street - 21 hours ago

Revenues from Tariffs Spiked to $23 Billion in May, up by 168% in 3 Months

It’s not nothing: At this pace, tariffs would raise receipts from corporate taxes by 39%, but would make only a dent into the huge US deficit.

eco - Wolf Street - 1 day ago

SandP’s US Manufacturing PMI Shows “Solid” Growth Powered by Jump in Domestic New Orders. Canada and Mexico PMIs Tank

But the ISM Manufacturing PMI for the US shows contraction on declining new orders. The contradicting PMIs add to the confusing “soft data.”

eco - Wolf Street - 3 days ago

Office CMBS Delinquency Rate Re-Spikes to 10.6%, to Worst Levels of the Financial Crisis Meltdown

It’s the older office towers that get in trouble amid a flight to quality.

eco - Wolf Street - 4 days ago

How Financial Services, a Market Plunge in April, and a Historic Cliff-Dive by Recreation Services Messed with PCE Inflation Today. But a Snap-Back Cometh

Outside of two heroes that pushed down the overall indices, there isn’t anything benign about this PCE inflation data.

eco - Wolf Street - 4 days ago

US Government Interest Payments to Tax Receipts, Average Interest Rate on the Debt, and Debt-to-GDP Ratio in Q1 2025

Update on an ugly situation.

eco - Wolf Street - 5 days ago

Pending Home Sales Plunge in All Regions, Inventories Surge. In the West and South, Collapsed Sales Meet Spiking Inventories

Adios, “spring selling season.”

eco - Wolf Street - 6 days ago

How the ECB’s Mark-to-Market of its Gold Holdings to €1 Trillion and €3.1 Trillion in QT Affect its Balance Sheet

Under QT, the ECB shed €3.1 trillion in bonds and loans. Separately, it wrote up its gold assets by €409 billion, or by 68%, to reflect soaring gold prices.

eco - Wolf Street - 6 days ago

Gold and QT: How the ECB’s Mark-to-Market of its Gold Holdings to €1 Trillion and €3.1 Trillion in QT Affect its Balance Sheet

Under QT, the ECB shed €3.1 trillion in bonds and loans. Separately, it wrote up its gold assets by €409 billion, or by 68%, to reflect soaring gold prices.

eco - Wolf Street - 6 days ago

Durable Goods Orders Made Ugly Headlines, but the 3-Month Average, which Irons Out Aircraft Orders, Rose to a Record

And the backlog of unfilled orders remained at record high.

eco - Wolf Street - 7 days ago

The 10 Big Cities with the Biggest Price Declines of Single-Family Homes from their Peaks through April: -7% to -21%

Austin, Oakland, New Orleans, San Francisco, Washington D.C., Phoenix, Portland, Denver, Fort Worth, San Antonio.

eco - Wolf Street - 10 days ago

30-Year and 20-Year Treasury Yields Back over 5%, 10-Year over 4.5%, Yield Curve Steepens at Long End, Mortgage Rates Back over 7%

Will the bond market eventually wake up and scare the bejesus out of Congress? Is it already rubbing its eyes?

eco - Wolf Street - 11 days ago

Inventory of New Houses for Sale at 500,000, Most since 2007, Driven by the South and West. Prices Zigzag Lower, Sales Rise

As homebuilders got aggressive with mortgage-rate buydowns, incentives and lower prices, sales held up, unlike sales of existing homes, which collapsed.

eco - Wolf Street - 11 days ago

Inventory of New Houses for Sale Reach 500,000, Most since 2007, Driven by the South and West. Prices Zigzag Lower, Sales Rise

As homebuilders got aggressive with mortgage-rate buydowns, incentives and lower prices, sales held up, unlike sales of existing homes, which collapsed.

eco - Wolf Street - 12 days ago

Spring Selling Season Fizzles, Worst April for Home Sales since 2009, Supply Surges to Highest since 2016, YoY Price Gains Fade

Epic demand destruction has ensued after prices spiked by 50% in three years. And now supply is piling up.

eco - Wolf Street - 13 days ago

As Tech Jobs Plunge in San Francisco and Silicon Valley, Housing Reacts: Condo Prices Drop Back to 2015, Single-Family Home Prices Back to 2018

The massive 10-year home-price spike to 2022 was more than the economy could bear and did a lot of damage, including to employment, as we can see.

eco - Wolf Street - 14 days ago

Credit Card Delinquencies, Balances, Debt-to-Income, and Credit Limits in Q1 2025: Our Drunken Sailors and their Credit Cards

With the free money gone, the hangover is getting worked off.

eco - Wolf Street - 14 days ago

Japan’s 30-Year and 40-Year Bonds Crater, Yields Spike, Huge Mess Coming Home to Roost. Yen Carry Trade at Risk

The BOJ’s QT, inflation that’s higher than in the US, an atrocious fiscal mess, a devalued yen, it all comes together.

eco - Wolf Street - 15 days ago

THANK YOU 💖 for Your Wonderful Support of WOLF STREET!!! And if You Missed it, a Reminder: Please Donate

Your support is what keeps Wolf Street open to all, without paywall, to reach the largest possible audience.

eco - Wolf Street - 15 days ago

The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America, April 2025: The Price Drops and Gains in 33 of the Largest Housing Markets

National year-over-year price gain shrinks to 0.7%. Now 18 of 33 metros have YoY price drops: San Diego, Austin, Tampa, Miami, San Francisco, San Antonio, Dallas, Phoenix, Orlando, Atlanta, Denver, Raleigh, Houston, Birmingham...

eco - Wolf Street - 17 days ago

Foreign Investors Loaded Up on Treasury Securities in March Despite all the Turmoil in the Media

And in April, their purchases of long-term securities at Treasury auctions increased.

eco - Wolf Street - 18 days ago

Moody’s Cuts US Government Credit Rating due to Deficits and Debt, Blames “Successive US Administrations and Congress”

US government kisses its last triple-A credit rating goodbye. Downgrade to “junk” would have been more appropriate?

eco - Wolf Street - 18 days ago

Auto-Loan Balances, Debt-to-Income Ratio, Serious Delinquencies for Subprime and Prime in Q1 2025: Our Drunken Sailors and their Auto Loans

Something rare occurred: Auto loan balances fell despite highest new and used vehicle sales in years. More people paid cash to dodge interest rates?

eco - Wolf Street - 18 days ago

The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in Canada, April 2025: Single-Family and Condo Prices Drop to Multi-Year Lows, Driven by Toronto

But some metros hit all-time highs. By Metro: Toronto, Vancouver, Victoria, Calgary, Ottawa, Montreal, Halifax, Edmonton, Quebec City, Winnipeg.

eco - Wolf Street - 19 days ago

Beyond the Squiggles in Retail Sales

Our Drunken Sailors may be in a crappy mood, but that doesn’t stop them.

eco - Wolf Street - 19 days ago

Here Come the HELOCs: Mortgages, Housing-Debt-to-Income-Ratio, Serious Delinquencies, and Foreclosures in Q1 2025

Who’s on the hook this time? Mostly not the banks, but taxpayers, except for HELOCs.

eco - Wolf Street - 20 days ago

Household Debts, Debt-to-Income Ratio, Serious Delinquencies, Collections, Foreclosures, Bankruptcies: Our Drunken Sailors’ Debts in Q1 2025

Student loans are loans again, OOPS.

eco - Wolf Street - 21 days ago

Beneath the Skin of CPI Inflation: Services Inflation Bounces Back, No Signs yet of Tariffs Getting Passed to Consumers

Inflation in April: Rent, motor vehicle insurance and maintenance, eating out, medical care services, rental cars. But prices of apparel and shoes fell.

eco - Wolf Street - 21 days ago

Housing Bubble and Bust #1 and #2 as Seen through Employment at Mortgage Lenders: They Shed Jobs Again, 38% Gone

Nonbank mortgage lenders and loan brokers react quickly to demand, which has collapsed.

eco - Wolf Street - 22 days ago

How the Debt Ceiling Is Now Pouring Liquidity into Financial Markets, only to Suck it Back Out Very Fast Later this Year

Last time, $840 billion got sucked out in 5 months, all from excess cash in ON RRPs. But after $2.26 trillion of QT, ON RRPs are nearly gone.

eco - Wolf Street - 24 days ago

10-year Treasury Yield Back at 4.39%, Yield Curve Steepens at Long End, Mortgage-Rate Spread Remains Historically Wide

Despite the rumors during bond turmoil, foreigners kept buying Treasuries and the “basis trade” didn’t blow, but the “swap spread trade” made a mess.

eco - Wolf Street - 25 days ago

Dear Readers, Please Donate to WOLF STREET: Spring 2025 Reminder

Your generous support has kept WOLF STREET free and open to all, and not behind a paywall. Thank you!!

eco - Wolf Street - 26 days ago

Recession Watch: Time to Dig Out Our Favorite Recession Indicator Again

Recession talk is swirling densely all over the place, so let’s have a look.

eco - Wolf Street - 26 days ago

I’ve Been Screaming about Rising Used-Vehicle Prices since Aug 2024 (and No One Paid Attention) but Suddenly It’s the Tariffs?

The issue has been tight used-vehicle inventory due to reduced influx of 2021/2022 model years after the new-vehicle shortages at the time.

eco - Wolf Street - 27 days ago

Fully in Wait-and-See Mode, Fed Keeps Rates at 4.25%-4.50%, Frets about Higher Uncertainty, Higher Inflation, and Higher Unemployment

QT Continues at the slower pace announced in March.

eco - Wolf Street - 28 days ago

After CRE Office Market Repriced at 70% Off in San Francisco, Sales Revive. Leasing Jumps amid 35% Vacancy Rates and 21% Drop in Asking Rents

If left alone, markets are good at sorting out a tough situation like this. The housing market could learn a lesson.

eco - Wolf Street - 28 days ago

NY Fed’s “Multivariate Core Trend” Inflation Measure Hits 3.0%, Worst in Over a Year, Predicts Acceleration of PCE Price Index

Driven largely by non-housing services. Just in time for the Fed meeting.

eco - Wolf Street - 29 days ago

California Inventory of Homes for Sale Suddenly Piles Up: +51% Year-over-Year, to Highest April in Years

Active listings in San Diego +70% yoy, Los Angeles +50%, San Jose and Silicon Valley +67%; San Francisco metro +43% (highest April since at least 2016)

eco - Wolf Street - 30 days ago

Unsold Inventory of Homes for Sale in Florida Pile up Further in April. Some Metros Start Seeing Gluts, Miami Still Lags a Little

Active Listings compared to April 2019: Jacksonville +23%, North Port-Sarasota +29%, Tampa +31%, Orlando +40%, Cape Coral-Fort Myers +42%, Lakeland-Winter Haven +71%.