NewZinoo: Wolf Street latest news

eco - Wolf Street - 16 hours ago

Treasury Yield Curve Un-Inverts Entirely, as Long-Term Yields Rise while Short-Term Yields Stay Put, No Longer Pricing in Rate Cuts. Mortgage Rates back Above 7%

Since September, the Fed cut by 100 basis points while the 10-year Treasury yield rose by 87 basis points! There are now doubts about further cuts.

eco - Wolf Street - 1 day ago

After Fed Trims ON RRP Rate by 5 Basis Points on Top of Rate Cut, ON RRPs Plunge to $98 Billion, Lowest since April 2021, -$2.3 Trillion from Peak, on the Way to Zero

QT has only drained ON RRPs so far, but not Reserves, which are still where they’d been when QT started in July 2022. QT has a long way to go.

eco - Wolf Street - 1 day ago

What Powell Said at the FOMC about Today’s PCE Price Index: “We Still Have Work to Do Though, Is How We’re Looking at it. We Need policy to Remain Restrictive to Get that Work Done”

Inflation is still in services, no progress in 6 months. Another bummer: Durable goods deflation, a contributor to cooling inflation, may be over.

eco - Wolf Street - 2 days ago

Census Bureau Massively Revises Up Population Growth: +8 Million in 3 Years, +3.3 Million Last Year, Largely due to Immigration. US Population Surges to 340 Million

Total Employment to be substantially revised higher early 2025 when the BLS incorporates these up-revisions into its household survey employment data.

eco - Wolf Street - 2 days ago

Home Sellers, Home Buyers, and Brokers Getting Used to the “New Normal” Old Normal 6-7% Mortgages?

Existing home sales rise from multi-decade rock-bottom, still -34% from 2021, -22% from 2019. Supply highest for November since 2018, days on market highest since 2019.

eco - Wolf Street - 3 days ago

Fed Cuts by 25 Basis Points, to 4.25%-4.50%, Sees Only 2 Cuts in 2025, Sees Higher Inflation, Higher “Longer-Run” Rates. QT Continues

Energetic backpedal from the aggressive monster-rate-cut trajectory envisioned by the markets three months ago.

eco - Wolf Street - 4 days ago

The Fed Needs to Watch Out to Not Throw More Fuel on this Demand: Retail Sales Accelerated Sharply in the 2nd Half

It’s like someone turned on the spigot in July and forgot to turn it off.

eco - Wolf Street - 5 days ago

Housing Bubble and Bust #1 and #2 as Seen through Employment in Mortgage Lending

Employment at nonbank mortgage lenders collapsed by 37% this time around, to the lowest level since 1997.

eco - Wolf Street - 5 days ago

The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in Canada, Nov. 2024: Condo Prices Drop to New 3-Year Low, Single-Family Prices Stable at -17% from Peak in March 2022

By Metro: Toronto, Vancouver, Hamilton, Calgary, Ottawa, Montreal, Quebec City, Halifax, Victoria, Edmonton, Winnipeg.

eco - Wolf Street - 7 days ago

Treasury Yield Curve Un-Inverts Further on Surging Longer-Term Yields: 10-Year Yield Now Higher than All Shorter Yields. Mortgage Rates Resurge

Fed cut by 75 basis points since September while 10-year Treasury yield rose by 75 basis points to 4.40%, as Bond Market frets about Inflation and Supply.

eco - Wolf Street - 8 days ago

Money Market Funds, Large CDs, Small CDs, and Total Deposits: Americans’ Huge Piles of Interest-Earning Cash as Rates Drop

Household cash in money market funds jumps to a record but CD balances begin to decline.

eco - Wolf Street - 8 days ago

The ECB Steps Away from Bond Market Entirely, Speeds Up Bond QT even as it Cut Rates

It already reduced its balance sheet by €2.48 trillion and completed its loan QT to near-zero.

eco - Wolf Street - 9 days ago

The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America, November Update: Prices Drop in All 33 Big Metros, Most in Austin, Tampa, Dallas, San Antonio

19 Metros below 2022 peaks: Austin -22%, San Francisco -10%, Phoenix -9%, San Antonio -8%, Denver -7%, Salt Lake City -6%, Sacramento -6%, Portland -6%, Dallas -6%, Seattle -5%, Honolulu -5%…

eco - Wolf Street - 10 days ago

PPI, “Core” PPI, “Core Services” PPI Inflation Much Hotter after Whopper Up-Revisions Going Back Months

The problem is in services, which account for 67% of PPI. But goods prices are re-accelerating too. The whole inflation scenario has changed.

eco - Wolf Street - 10 days ago

Beneath the Skin of CPI Inflation: CPI and “Core” CPI Accelerate Further Month-to-Month, 3-Month Averages Heat Up for 4th Month. Year-over-Year, CPI Accelerates for 2nd Month

On re-spiking motor vehicle prices, jumping food and gasoline prices. But housing inflation backs off.

eco - Wolf Street - 11 days ago

GM Shuts Down its Misbegotten Robotaxi Money-Pit Cruise after acquiring it in 2016 and then Blowing $10 Billion on It

Cruise was supposed to generate $50 billion in revenues by 2030, according to GM’s former hype, which Wall Street ate up.

eco - Wolf Street - 11 days ago

GM Shuts Down its Misbegotten Robotaxi Money-Pit after Acquiring Cruise in 2016 and then Blowing $10 Billion on It

Cruise was supposed to generate $50 billion in revenues by 2030, according to GM’s former hype, which Wall Street ate up.

eco - Wolf Street - 12 days ago

Credit-Market Mania Crushed “Yield Spreads” and Risk Premiums, but Corporate and CRE Borrowing Costs Are Still Much Higher

Loosey-goosey financial conditions don’t mean low borrowing costs. They just mean narrow yield spreads.

eco - Wolf Street - 14 days ago

Used-Vehicle Prices Turn into Inflation Headwind, after Historic 2-Year Plunge Helped Power the “Deceleration” of Core CPI

Prices are rising again, amid tight supply, sharply reduced flow through the used-vehicle pipeline, and strong demand.

eco - Wolf Street - 15 days ago

Labor Market Doing Fine. The Fed Can be “Careful” with Rate Cuts. Maybe Time for Some Wait-and-See?

Payrolls and wages jump, prior 2 months revised higher, solid bounce-back from Hurricanes and Boeing strike. 3-month average payrolls +173,000!

eco - Wolf Street - 16 days ago

Fed Balance Sheet QT: -$98 Billion in November, -$2.07 Trillion from Peak, to $6.90 Trillion, Lowest since May 2020

Quantitative Tightening has shed 43% of the assets the Fed had added during pandemic QE. Bank-panic facility BTFP is vanishing.

eco - Wolf Street - 16 days ago

Everybody Should Get Used to these Mortgage Rates, Says Fannie Mae CEO: Mortgage Rates, 10-Year Treasury Yields, QT, and Spreads

“Current mortgage rates and Fannie Mae’s forecast for 2025 rates are well in line with rates over the past several decades.”

eco - Wolf Street - 18 days ago

Cut the Price and They Will Come: New-Vehicle Sales Jump amid Big Discounts and Incentives, as Inventory Balloons

But prices are still way too high, and automakers are not cutting them nearly enough.

eco - Wolf Street - 18 days ago

Underlying Job Market Dynamics Begin to Retighten. The Fed Is Already Backpedaling on the Pace and Depth of Rate Cuts

Job openings and voluntary quits jumped by the most in over a year, layoffs and discharges plunged.

eco - Wolf Street - 19 days ago

Factory Construction Spending Soars to New Record, +16% YoY, +242% since 2019: Result of Corporate and Strategic Rethink

Trump’s tariffs -- a tax on profit margins of US and foreign companies -- will push in the same direction as Biden’s taxpayer-and-debt-funded incentives.

eco - Wolf Street - 21 days ago

Office CMBS Delinquency Rate Spikes to 10.4%, Just Below Worst of Financial Crisis Meltdown. Fastest 2-Year Spike Ever

Office-to-residential conversions are growing, but are minuscule because not many towers are suitable for conversion.

eco - Wolf Street - 23 days ago

Federal Government Interest-Payments-to-Tax-Receipts Ratio Spikes, Debt-to-GDP Worsens Further in Q3

The magnitude and speed of this spike is unprecedented in modern US history. It does not look good.

eco - Wolf Street - 25 days ago

Inflation Re-Accelerates Despite Plunging Gasoline Prices as “Core Services” PCE Price Index Hits 7-Month High

Core services inflation is the biggie, and it’s going the wrong way. The Fed is already talking down the pace of rate cuts.

eco - Wolf Street - 25 days ago

Inventory of New Single-Family Houses Jumps to Highest since 2007. Unsold Spec Houses Jump to Highest since 2009 as Sales Suddenly Plunge

Bring on the supply. Homebuilders may need to do some serious price cutting to move their inventory.

eco - Wolf Street - 26 days ago

Americans Buy Ever Bigger, More Powerful, More Fuel-Efficient Trucks, SUVs and Cars. EVs Escalate the Horsepower War

“The roughly linear increase in specific power” of ICE vehicles over the past 50 years “does not appear to be slowing”: EPA.

eco - Wolf Street - 28 days ago

Operating Losses and “Unrealized” Losses of the Federal Reserve in Q3 2024

QE was a huge gravy train for taxpayers. But then came the hangover.

eco - Wolf Street - 29 days ago

US National Debt Goes Over $36 Trillion, +$2 Trillion in 2024!! 🥂🍾

The share of T-bills outstanding, average interest rate paid on the debt, and the Government Checking Account (TGA).

eco - Wolf Street - 29 days ago

Since September, the Fed cut by 100 basis points while the 10-year Treasury yield rose by 87 basis points! There are now doubts about further cuts.

QT has only drained ON RRPs so far, but not Reserves, which are still where they’d been when QT started in July 2022. QT has a long way to go.

Inflation is still in services, no progress in 6 months. Another bummer: Durable goods deflation, a contributor to cooling inflation, may be over.

Total Employment to be substantially revised higher early 2025 when the BLS incorporates these up-revisions into its household survey employment data.

Existing home sales rise from multi-decade rock-bottom, still -34% from 2021, -22% from 2019. Supply highest for November since 2018, days on market highest since 2019.

Energetic backpedal from the aggressive monster-rate-cut trajectory envisioned by the markets three months ago.

It’s like someone turned on the spigot in July and forgot to turn it off.

Employment at nonbank mortgage lenders collapsed by 37% this time around, to the lowest level since 1997.

By Metro: Toronto, Vancouver, Hamilton, Calgary, Ottawa, Montreal, Quebec City, Halifax, Victoria, Edmonton, Winnipeg.

Fed cut by 75 basis points since September while 10-year Treasury yield rose by 75 basis points to 4.40%, as Bond Market frets about Inflation and Supply.

Household cash in money market funds jumps to a record but CD balances begin to decline.

It already reduced its balance sheet by €2.48 trillion and completed its loan QT to near-zero.

19 Metros below 2022 peaks: Austin -22%, San Francisco -10%, Phoenix -9%, San Antonio -8%, Denver -7%, Salt Lake City -6%, Sacramento -6%, Portland -6%, Dallas -6%, Seattle -5%, Honolulu -5%…

The problem is in services, which account for 67% of PPI. But goods prices are re-accelerating too. The whole inflation scenario has changed.

On re-spiking motor vehicle prices, jumping food and gasoline prices. But housing inflation backs off.

Cruise was supposed to generate $50 billion in revenues by 2030, according to GM’s former hype, which Wall Street ate up.

Cruise was supposed to generate $50 billion in revenues by 2030, according to GM’s former hype, which Wall Street ate up.

Loosey-goosey financial conditions don’t mean low borrowing costs. They just mean narrow yield spreads.

Prices are rising again, amid tight supply, sharply reduced flow through the used-vehicle pipeline, and strong demand.

Payrolls and wages jump, prior 2 months revised higher, solid bounce-back from Hurricanes and Boeing strike. 3-month average payrolls +173,000!

Quantitative Tightening has shed 43% of the assets the Fed had added during pandemic QE. Bank-panic facility BTFP is vanishing.

“Current mortgage rates and Fannie Mae’s forecast for 2025 rates are well in line with rates over the past several decades.”

But prices are still way too high, and automakers are not cutting them nearly enough.

Job openings and voluntary quits jumped by the most in over a year, layoffs and discharges plunged.

Trump’s tariffs -- a tax on profit margins of US and foreign companies -- will push in the same direction as Biden’s taxpayer-and-debt-funded incentives.

Office-to-residential conversions are growing, but are minuscule because not many towers are suitable for conversion.

The magnitude and speed of this spike is unprecedented in modern US history. It does not look good.

Core services inflation is the biggie, and it’s going the wrong way. The Fed is already talking down the pace of rate cuts.

Bring on the supply. Homebuilders may need to do some serious price cutting to move their inventory.

“The roughly linear increase in specific power” of ICE vehicles over the past 50 years “does not appear to be slowing”: EPA.

QE was a huge gravy train for taxpayers. But then came the hangover.

The share of T-bills outstanding, average interest rate paid on the debt, and the Government Checking Account (TGA).

Amid renewed inflation worries and above-average economic growth.