eco
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Wolf Street
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5
hours ago
Private Sector Employers Created 46,000 Jobs, Governments Shed 17,000 Jobs
The labor force rose, after shedding 2.1 million people in 8 months amid the crackdown on illegal immigration and the wave of retirements.
eco
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Wolf Street
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15
hours ago
Homeowners Are Clinging to their Below-4% Mortgages for Dear Life as Mortgage Rates Went over 7%
The housing market, wrecked by ultralow mortgage rates, will stay wrecked for longer.
eco
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Wolf Street
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1
day ago
AI Data Center Construction Goes Nuts, Power Plants Take Off, but Spending on Factories Is still Twice as Big as Data Centers
Construction companies are now facing the second wave of inflation.
eco
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Wolf Street
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1
day ago
The US Economy “Is Running Hot,” Lots of Consumer Spending Growth, Lots of Inflation. The Bond Market Sees it Too
Spending on discretionary goods and services that people buy to have fun with was particularly motivated.
eco
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Wolf Street
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2
days ago
Not Even the Massive Changes of Methodology Can Get PCE Inflation Back into the Bottle
Those changes in methodology knocked the PCE price index down, but even the new-and-improved version remained far above the Fed’s target.
eco
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Wolf Street
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3
days ago
Turnover in the Labor Market Calms Down, after Chaotic Churn
Workers quit quitting and settled in, after the epic rematching of workers and employers.
eco
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Wolf Street
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3
days ago
Anthropic Lost $42 Billion on $4.6 Billion in Revenues in 2025: Leaked IPO Prospectus
It plans to spend $518 billion in the coming years on cloud, computing, and infrastructure obligations and now needs a lot of AI magic money.
eco
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Wolf Street
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4
days ago
Biggest Borrowers and Lenders in the $13.5-Trillion Repo Market: How the Hedge Fund “Basis Trade” and Money Market Funds Fit In
It works really well, until it suddenly doesn’t.
eco
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Wolf Street
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6
days ago
Long-Term Treasury Yields Rise to 5.5%, Mortgage Rates to 7.5%, as Bond Market Grapples with a Complex Reality
It would make sense for the bond market to take a breather here and digest a little. But the dynamics are in place for yields to rise further.
eco
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Wolf Street
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7
days ago
WHOOSH, Go Orders at US Manufacturers of “Core Capital Goods,” Fueled by the AI Infrastructure Boom
Orders received by manufacturers of core capital goods spiked by 14% YoY, of machinery by 15%, of IT equipment by 16%.
eco
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Wolf Street
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8
days ago
What the Infamous “Housing Shortage” Looks Like: Inventories of New Single-Family Homes Balloon, Sales Crawl, Prices Sag
Homebuilders have been doing their job creating lots of new housing stock, but demand is weak, and supply sky-high.
eco
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Wolf Street
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9
days ago
Bond Bloodbath: 10-Year Treasury Yield Spikes 13 Basis Points to 5.10% after Hot PMIs with Inflation Written All Over
They got spooked: 2-year Treasury yield +13 basis points to 4.90%, after yesterday’s auction. 7-year +14 basis points to 5.04%. 30-year hits 5.39%.
eco
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Wolf Street
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10
days ago
$6.53 Diesel US Average, $8.25 in California, Worsens Already Hot Inflation, amid Record US Diesel Exports. Gasoline and Jet Fuel Prices also Spike
I'm worried about the inflationary mindset taking off again. It's the Fed's job to step on the brakes before inflation turns into a runaway train.
eco
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Wolf Street
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11
days ago
Tech, Science, Social Media Jobs in San Francisco and Silicon Valley Plunge to 2019 Level: AI Magic-Money Boom Is Paper Thin
The local economy and housing market have become immensely dependent on unsustainable AI magic-money.
eco
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Wolf Street
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12
days ago
Treasury Yields of 2 Years and 3 Years Spike toward 5%, but 10-Year Holds at 5%, Yield Curve Bulges: Some Thoughts on What’s Brewing
The 2-year and 3-year yields indicate that the 10-year yield could go way higher over the next few months.
eco
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Wolf Street
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13
days ago
Oh Dear, Condo Prices Dropped by 15% to 34% in 34 Bigger Markets. 6 Plunged Back to Where They’d Been 20 Years Ago
In another 35 bigger cities, condo prices dropped by 8-14%. Mind-blowing Condo Bubbles deflate in 34 charts.
eco
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Wolf Street
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14
days ago
Treasuries Have Become Badly Unappetizing for Foreign Central Banks and Governments
But opaque foreign financial centers pile on Treasuries, often held by US companies and hedge funds.
eco
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Wolf Street
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15
days ago
Pending Home Sales Stuck Deep in Mud, Edge up from Down-Revised 2nd Lowest on Record, Supply Hits 10-Year+ High
Sales were bad in all regions. But mortgage rates in August were still quite a bit lower than now.
eco
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Wolf Street
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16
days ago
Fed Finally Hikes, Dot Plot Sees More Rate Hikes, New Rate-Hike Cycle Starts. Bond Market Breathes Small Sigh of Relief
This was a hawkish meeting, with a unanimous vote for a hike, and more hikes indicated.
eco
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Wolf Street
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16
days ago
Despite All Moaning and Groaning, Americans Not in the Mood to Slow Down: Retail Sales Surge even without Gasoline
Not even sky-high gasoline prices could dent their spending on bars and restaurants, ecommerce, cannabis stores, etc.
eco
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Wolf Street
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17
days ago
Some Thoughts on the 5.42% Yield at the 20-Year Treasury Auction: Bond Market Bloodbath Continues
The function of yield is to create demand. And it did.
eco
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Wolf Street
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17
days ago
Money-Market Funds and CDs: Americans Pile on Low-Risk Investments despite so-so Yields and Higher Inflation
The interplay of risk and inflation.
eco
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Wolf Street
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18
days ago
The 10-Year Treasury Yield Briefly Makes it over 5%. Last Time, 5% Instantly Opened the Floodgates of Demand
But 5% was considered normal to low in the decades before the Fed’s financial repression kicked off in 2008.
eco
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Wolf Street
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19
days ago
Long-Term Treasury Yields Spike, 1- to 7-Year Yields Explode, Mortgage Rates Hit 7.12%, Bond Market Gets Spooked
Spooked by inflation, deficits, hocus-pocus shows, competition from the AI debt binge, and getting casually thrown under the bus by Trump’s free-money promise.
eco
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Wolf Street
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21
days ago
Inflation Not Going Back into the Bottle: CPI, Core CPI, and Core Services CPI Bounce Back
Core services CPI +4.0% annualized, Core CPI +3.5% annualized, all-items CPI +4.9% annualized in August from July.
eco
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Wolf Street
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21
days ago
Bond Market Has a Cow, Treasury Yields Spike across the Board, 10-Year Yield near 5%, 30-Year Yield at 5.37%
Lots of Bad Stuff all at once, topped off by Trump’s $1.35 Trillion Free-Money Promise, $5,000 for every adult American, at the worst possible time.
eco
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Wolf Street
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22
days ago
Sales of Existing Single-Family Homes Sag Further, Supply Spikes to Decade High. Condo Sales Drop to Data-Low, Supply Spikes to 14-Year High
The average weekly mortgage rate, at 6.76%, is not high historically. Inflation is high. And home prices are high.
eco
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Wolf Street
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22
days ago
PPI Shows Surging Inflation Across Prices that Companies Pay Each Other. The Fed Should Stop Dilly-Dallying Around
This kind of inflation is nothing to be trifled with: In services +4.5%; in goods without energy +5.0%; in energy +24%; overall +5.4%; year-over-year.
eco
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Wolf Street
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23
days ago
10-Year to 30-Year Treasury Yields Jump after Bessent Reveals Bond Buybacks for Tomorrow’s Auction
The hocus-pocus show falls flat. Well, OK, then.
eco
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Wolf Street
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24
days ago
Why the Gasoline Price Spike Didn’t Derail Consumer Spending despite all Moaning and Groaning: Auto Dealers Got Caught Too
Americans hate, hate, hate high gas prices, but they’re less sensitive to them than auto dealers ironically expected.
eco
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Wolf Street
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24
days ago
By Dumping US Treasuries to Prop Up the Yen, Japan’s Foreign Currency Reserves Plunged by $95 Billion in August. But Don’t Cry for Japan. These Interventions Are Hugely Profitable
The government is already busy fighting over what to do with the $31 billion in profits on its foreign exchange interventions last fiscal year.
eco
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Wolf Street
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26
days ago
The 10-Year Treasury Yield over 5%? Some Thoughts
The economy did fine with a 10-year yield of 5-8%, including in the 1990s, amid a tight labor market and lots of economic growth.
eco
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Wolf Street
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27
days ago
Where Are the Jobs? Winners and Losers by Industry
The job creation machine is running backwards in some industries and forward in others.
eco
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Wolf Street
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28
days ago
Turns Out, the Labor Market is OK Despite All Moaning and Groaning about the Economy or Whatever
The Fed can focus on getting its messy inflation-house in order.
eco
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Wolf Street
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28
days ago